My superstar colleagues (special shout-out to Hanna Breunig and Tyler Huntington) wrote an awesome parcel-level model for California that simulates the turnover of the building stock in California. The paper was just published in ES&T.

An excerpt from the abstract: “While the 2020 targets for the reduction of GHG emissions set by the California Senate Bill 350 have already been met, none of our scenarios achieve >80% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050, despite assuming an 86% reduction in electricity carbon intensity in our “Low Carbon” scenario. The results highlight the challenge California faces in meeting its new energy efficiency targets unless the State’s building stock undergoes timely and strategic turnover, paired with deep retrofitting of existing buildings and natural gas equipment.”

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.8b00435